DDM Analysis: XVALO.MC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.99 - $16.58	$13.63
Multi-Stage	$22.61 - $24.84	$23.71
Blended Fair Value	$18.67
Current Price	$11.02
Upside	69.39%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.92	1.34	1.51	3.07	0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-31.60%	-11.27%	-50.82%	291.44%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.03%	10.65%	9.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,464.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,038.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,100.40	687.75	412.65
Cash Retained (M)	2,038.00	2,038.00	2,038.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,100.40	-687.75	-412.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	937.60	1,350.25	1,625.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,272.84	4,272.84	4,272.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.32	0.38
LTM Dividend per Share	0.81	0.81	0.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.32	0.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.03	1.13	1.19
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$10.99	$13.63	$16.58
Upside / Downside	-0.26%	23.67%	50.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,502.00	5,446.98	5,392.51	5,338.59	5,285.20	5,232.35	5,389.32
Payout Ratio	62.96%	68.37%	73.78%	79.18%	84.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,464.00	3,723.94	3,978.34	4,227.28	4,470.84	4,709.11	4,985.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,439.23	3,474.32	3,509.42
Year 2 PV (M)	3,393.27	3,462.87	3,533.18
Year 3 PV (M)	3,329.93	3,432.91	3,538.00
Year 4 PV (M)	3,252.53	3,387.34	3,526.29
Year 5 PV (M)	3,163.95	3,328.70	3,500.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)	80,038.95	84,206.76	88,546.42
Equity Value (M)	96,617.87	101,292.91	106,153.55
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,272.84	4,272.84	4,272.84
Fair Value	$22.61	$23.71	$24.84
Upside / Downside	105.19%	115.12%	125.44%

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Vale S.A. (XVALO.MC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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