DDM Analysis: WMS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$104.54 - $213.30	$146.34
Multi-Stage	$76.74 - $83.84	$80.23
Blended Fair Value	$113.29
Current Price	$138.70
Upside	-18.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-11.60%	20.25%	0.64	0.56	0.51	0.47	0.39	1.18	0.33	0.24	0.22	0.21
YoY Growth	-	-	13.05%	11.06%	6.99%	20.66%	-66.69%	252.33%	41.51%	9.86%	3.57%	106.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.55%	0.36%	0.45%	0.53%	0.34%	2.39%	1.03%	0.83%	1.07%	0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	458.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	52.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)	405.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	91.67	57.29	34.37
Cash Retained (M)	405.42	405.42	405.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-91.67	-57.29	-34.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)	313.76	348.13	371.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	78.18	78.18	78.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.01	4.45	4.75
LTM Dividend per Share	0.68	0.68	0.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.01	4.45	4.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.69	5.13	5.42
WACC / Discount Rate	10.23%	10.23%	10.23%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$104.54	$146.34	$213.30
Upside / Downside	-24.63%	5.51%	53.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	458.33	488.12	519.85	553.64	589.62	627.95	646.79
Payout Ratio	11.54%	27.23%	42.93%	58.62%	74.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	52.91	132.94	223.15	324.53	438.14	565.15	598.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.23%	10.23%	10.23%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	119.46	120.60	121.73
Year 2 PV (M)	180.21	183.64	187.11
Year 3 PV (M)	235.52	242.28	249.17
Year 4 PV (M)	285.75	296.73	308.04
Year 5 PV (M)	331.23	347.22	363.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,847.82	5,081.97	5,325.08
Equity Value (M)	5,999.98	6,272.45	6,554.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	78.18	78.18	78.18
Fair Value	$76.74	$80.23	$83.84
Upside / Downside	-44.67%	-42.16%	-39.55%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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