DDM Analysis: VSEC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24.95 - $54.47	$35.78
Multi-Stage	$18.34 - $20.01	$19.16
Blended Fair Value	$27.47
Current Price	$166.24
Upside	-83.48%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.64%	13.25%	0.34	0.26	0.25	0.21	0.19	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	29.87%	6.36%	15.45%	11.51%	6.55%	14.22%	15.84%	13.50%	9.88%	11.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.28%	0.33%	0.55%	0.46%	0.49%	1.10%	0.47%	0.26%	0.29%	0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	26.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.32	3.32	1.99
Cash Retained (M)	18.35	18.35	18.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.32	-3.32	-1.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.03	15.03	16.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	20.71	20.71	20.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.73	0.79
LTM Dividend per Share	0.40	0.40	0.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.73	0.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.03	1.12	1.19
WACC / Discount Rate	9.84%	9.84%	9.84%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$24.95	$35.78	$54.47
Upside / Downside	-84.99%	-78.48%	-67.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	26.58	28.31	30.15	32.11	34.20	36.42	37.52
Payout Ratio	30.98%	42.78%	54.59%	66.39%	78.20%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8.24	12.11	16.46	21.32	26.74	32.78	34.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.84%	9.84%	9.84%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	10.92	11.03	11.13
Year 2 PV (M)	13.39	13.64	13.90
Year 3 PV (M)	15.64	16.09	16.54
Year 4 PV (M)	17.69	18.37	19.07
Year 5 PV (M)	19.55	20.50	21.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	302.47	317.08	332.25
Equity Value (M)	379.66	396.70	414.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	20.71	20.71	20.71
Fair Value	$18.34	$19.16	$20.01
Upside / Downside	-88.97%	-88.47%	-87.96%

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VSE Corporation (VSEC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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