DDM Analysis: VBFC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$45.61 - $71.57	$57.53
Multi-Stage	$109.03 - $120.24	$114.52
Blended Fair Value	$86.03
Current Price	$77.85
Upside	10.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.72	0.66	0.57	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	9.79%	14.47%	316.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.92%	1.60%	1.04%	0.25%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5.94

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.40	0.88	0.53
Cash Retained (M)	5.94	5.94	5.94
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.40	-0.88	-0.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4.54	5.06	5.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1.50	1.50	1.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.03	3.38	3.62
LTM Dividend per Share	0.72	0.72	0.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.03	3.38	3.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.75	4.10	4.34
WACC / Discount Rate	6.06%	6.06%	6.06%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$45.61	$57.53	$71.57
Upside / Downside	-41.41%	-26.10%	-8.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7.02	6.95	6.88	6.81	6.74	6.67	6.87
Payout Ratio	15.35%	30.28%	45.21%	60.14%	75.07%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.08	2.10	3.11	4.09	5.06	6.01	6.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.06%	6.06%	6.06%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	1.96	1.98	2.00
Year 2 PV (M)	2.71	2.76	2.82
Year 3 PV (M)	3.33	3.43	3.54
Year 4 PV (M)	3.84	4.00	4.16
Year 5 PV (M)	4.25	4.47	4.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	147.02	154.68	162.65
Equity Value (M)	163.11	171.33	179.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	1.50	1.50	1.50
Fair Value	$109.03	$114.52	$120.24
Upside / Downside	40.05%	47.11%	54.45%

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Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. (VBFC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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