DDM Analysis: UTL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$43.55 - $82.13	$59.19
Multi-Stage	$62.38 - $68.37	$65.32
Blended Fair Value	$62.25
Current Price	$52.15
Upside	19.38%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.47%	3.66%	1.68	1.60	1.53	1.44	1.38	1.35	1.33	1.25	1.22	1.20
YoY Growth	-	-	4.96%	4.38%	6.36%	4.42%	2.26%	1.38%	6.86%	2.00%	2.04%	2.08%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.91%	3.09%	2.69%	2.89%	3.02%	2.58%	2.46%	2.68%	2.71%	2.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	46.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	28.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	17.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.36	5.85	3.51
Cash Retained (M)	17.90	17.90	17.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.36	-5.85	-3.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.54	12.05	14.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	16.38	16.38	16.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.74	0.88
LTM Dividend per Share	1.76	1.76	1.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.74	0.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.29	2.50	2.64
WACC / Discount Rate	6.99%	6.99%	6.99%
Growth Rate	1.66%	2.66%	3.66%
Fair Value	$43.55	$59.19	$82.13
Upside / Downside	-16.50%	13.51%	57.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	46.80	48.04	49.32	50.63	51.98	53.36	54.96
Payout Ratio	61.75%	67.40%	73.05%	78.70%	84.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	28.90	32.38	36.03	39.85	43.84	48.02	50.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.99%	6.99%	6.99%
Growth Rate	1.66%	2.66%	3.66%
Year 1 PV (M)	29.97	30.27	30.56
Year 2 PV (M)	30.86	31.47	32.09
Year 3 PV (M)	31.59	32.53	33.49
Year 4 PV (M)	32.17	33.46	34.78
Year 5 PV (M)	32.62	34.25	35.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)	864.75	908.13	953.23
Equity Value (M)	1,021.97	1,070.11	1,120.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	16.38	16.38	16.38
Fair Value	$62.38	$65.32	$68.37
Upside / Downside	19.61%	25.24%	31.10%

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Unitil Corporation (UTL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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