DDM Analysis: UPS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$137.35 - $328.69	$203.25
Multi-Stage	$118.95 - $129.61	$124.18
Blended Fair Value	$163.72
Current Price	$83.53
Upside	96.00%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.07%	8.60%	6.34	6.31	6.01	4.04	3.96	3.75	3.54	3.26	3.11	2.97
YoY Growth	-	-	0.50%	5.04%	48.79%	1.87%	5.64%	6.08%	8.66%	4.84%	4.67%	6.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.77%	4.28%	3.10%	1.88%	2.33%	4.02%	3.09%	3.11%	2.89%	2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,395.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	107.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,100.40	687.75	412.65
Cash Retained (M)	107.00	107.00	107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,100.40	-687.75	-412.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-993.40	-580.75	-305.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	851.00	851.00	851.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-1.17	-0.68	-0.36
LTM Dividend per Share	6.34	6.34	6.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-1.17	-0.68	-0.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.17	5.66	5.98
WACC / Discount Rate	8.57%	8.57%	8.57%
Growth Rate	4.63%	5.63%	6.63%
Fair Value	$137.35	$203.25	$328.69
Upside / Downside	64.43%	143.32%	293.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,502.00	5,811.83	6,139.10	6,484.80	6,849.97	7,235.70	7,452.78
Payout Ratio	98.06%	96.44%	94.83%	93.22%	91.61%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,395.00	5,605.17	5,821.90	6,045.27	6,275.33	6,512.13	6,893.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.57%	8.57%	8.57%
Growth Rate	4.63%	5.63%	6.63%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,113.79	5,162.66	5,211.54
Year 2 PV (M)	4,845.88	4,938.96	5,032.91
Year 3 PV (M)	4,590.69	4,723.58	4,859.00
Year 4 PV (M)	4,347.64	4,516.24	4,689.70
Year 5 PV (M)	4,116.18	4,316.67	4,524.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	78,212.64	82,022.30	85,979.00
Equity Value (M)	101,226.81	105,680.41	110,297.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	851.00	851.00	851.00
Fair Value	$118.95	$124.18	$129.61
Upside / Downside	42.40%	48.67%	55.16%

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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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