DDM Analysis: UNTR.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$212,633.53 - $844,097.38	$577,654.96
Multi-Stage	$104,255.83 - $113,972.53	$109,025.54
Blended Fair Value	$343,340.25
Current Price	$26,775.00
Upside	1,182.32%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.99%	15.07%	2,235.27	6,883.97	1,752.66	829.66	1,002.11	1,269.08	1,002.11	693.06	598.60	817.30
YoY Growth	-	-	-67.53%	292.77%	111.25%	-17.21%	-21.04%	26.64%	44.59%	15.78%	-26.76%	48.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.49%	28.65%	6.02%	3.25%	4.53%	7.51%	3.68%	2.17%	2.26%	5.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	15,414,710.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7,808,837.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7,605,873.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,082,942.00	1,926,838.75	1,156,103.25
Cash Retained (M)	7,605,873.00	7,605,873.00	7,605,873.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,082,942.00	-1,926,838.75	-1,156,103.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,522,931.00	5,679,034.25	6,449,769.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,631.81	3,631.81	3,631.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1,245.37	1,563.69	1,775.91
LTM Dividend per Share	2,150.12	2,150.12	2,150.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1,245.37	1,563.69	1,775.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3,395.49	3,713.82	3,926.03
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$212,633.53	$577,654.96	$844,097.38
Upside / Downside	694.15%	2,057.44%	3,052.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	15,414,710.00	16,416,666.15	17,483,749.45	18,620,193.16	19,830,505.72	21,119,488.59	21,753,073.25
Payout Ratio	50.66%	58.53%	66.40%	74.26%	82.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7,808,837.00	9,608,129.03	11,608,336.69	13,827,977.00	16,287,125.33	19,007,539.73	20,121,592.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	8,879,916.34	8,964,086.17	9,048,255.99
Year 2 PV (M)	9,915,396.63	10,104,257.08	10,294,899.24
Year 3 PV (M)	10,916,132.32	11,229,495.25	11,548,798.53
Year 4 PV (M)	11,882,959.82	12,339,944.92	12,809,985.76
Year 5 PV (M)	12,816,697.81	13,435,749.11	14,078,492.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	324,226,173.43	339,886,418.84	356,146,018.71
Equity Value (M)	378,637,276.35	395,959,951.36	413,926,451.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,631.81	3,631.81	3,631.81
Fair Value	$104,255.83	$109,025.54	$113,972.53
Upside / Downside	289.38%	307.19%	325.67%

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PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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