DDM Analysis: UNP

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$124.57 - $199.40	$158.46
Multi-Stage	$184.71 - $202.47	$193.42
Blended Fair Value	$175.94
Current Price	$236.37
Upside	-25.57%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.34%	7.01%	5.36	5.29	5.27	4.67	4.38	4.33	3.83	3.31	3.13	3.91
YoY Growth	-	-	1.26%	0.44%	12.82%	6.63%	1.08%	13.01%	15.99%	5.48%	-19.84%	43.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.27%	2.17%	2.62%	1.71%	1.99%	3.07%	2.24%	2.46%	2.96%	4.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,052.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,228.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,824.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,410.40	881.50	528.90
Cash Retained (M)	3,824.00	3,824.00	3,824.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,410.40	-881.50	-528.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,413.60	2,942.50	3,295.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	599.63	599.63	599.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.03	4.91	5.50
LTM Dividend per Share	5.38	5.38	5.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.03	4.91	5.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend	9.41	10.29	10.88
WACC / Discount Rate	8.16%	8.16%	8.16%
Growth Rate	0.56%	1.56%	2.56%
Fair Value	$124.57	$158.46	$199.40
Upside / Downside	-47.30%	-32.96%	-15.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,052.00	7,162.16	7,274.04	7,387.67	7,503.07	7,620.28	7,848.89
Payout Ratio	45.77%	54.62%	63.46%	72.31%	81.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,228.00	3,911.93	4,616.44	5,342.00	6,089.11	6,858.25	7,260.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.16%	8.16%	8.16%
Growth Rate	0.56%	1.56%	2.56%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,581.27	3,616.88	3,652.49
Year 2 PV (M)	3,869.00	3,946.33	4,024.43
Year 3 PV (M)	4,098.66	4,222.15	4,348.10
Year 4 PV (M)	4,276.98	4,449.66	4,627.51
Year 5 PV (M)	4,410.04	4,633.72	4,866.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)	90,518.37	95,109.39	99,884.84
Equity Value (M)	110,754.32	115,978.13	121,403.74
Shares Outstanding (M)	599.63	599.63	599.63
Fair Value	$184.71	$193.42	$202.47
Upside / Downside	-21.86%	-18.17%	-14.34%

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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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