DDM Analysis: UMBF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$205.84 - $521.34	$310.23
Multi-Stage	$141.91 - $155.07	$148.37
Blended Fair Value	$229.30
Current Price	$118.35
Upside	93.75%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.35%	6.43%	1.16	1.12	1.08	1.00	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.78	0.74	0.69
YoY Growth	-	-	3.88%	3.08%	7.91%	10.73%	1.42%	1.99%	12.34%	5.79%	6.68%	11.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.15%	1.32%	1.87%	1.03%	0.98%	1.93%	1.34%	1.08%	0.98%	1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	607.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	114.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)	492.51

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	121.41	75.88	45.53
Cash Retained (M)	492.51	492.51	492.51
(-) Cash Required (M)	-121.41	-75.88	-45.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	371.10	416.63	446.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	66.56	66.56	66.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.58	6.26	6.72
LTM Dividend per Share	1.72	1.72	1.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.58	6.26	6.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.30	7.98	8.44
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$205.84	$310.23	$521.34
Upside / Downside	73.92%	162.13%	340.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	607.04	646.50	688.52	733.27	780.94	831.70	856.65
Payout Ratio	18.87%	33.09%	47.32%	61.55%	75.77%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	114.53	213.95	325.81	451.31	591.74	748.53	792.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	194.01	195.85	197.69
Year 2 PV (M)	267.92	273.03	278.18
Year 3 PV (M)	336.54	346.20	356.05
Year 4 PV (M)	400.15	415.54	431.37
Year 5 PV (M)	459.01	481.18	504.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,787.68	8,163.83	8,554.37
Equity Value (M)	9,445.32	9,875.64	10,321.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	66.56	66.56	66.56
Fair Value	$141.91	$148.37	$155.07
Upside / Downside	19.90%	25.37%	31.03%

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300452.SZ	Anhui Sunhere Pharmaceutical Excipients Co.,Ltd.	2.43%	$0.33	58.46%
603599.SS	Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd.	2.43%	$0.28	35.02%
605286.SS	Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co., Ltd.	2.43%	$0.99	75.51%
9569.SR	Almuneef Company for Trade, Industry, Agriculture and Contracting	2.43%	$0.20	19.26%
ALV	Autoliv, Inc.	2.43%	$2.97	30.32%
KEPEN.AT	Flour Mills Kepenos S.A.	2.43%	$0.05	39.82%
MSAB-B.ST	Micro Systemation AB (publ)	2.43%	$1.50	65.33%
NEOE3.SA	Neoenergia S.A.	2.43%	$0.77	21.26%
OV8.SI	Sheng Siong Group Ltd	2.43%	$0.06	66.54%
VIL.PA	VIEL & Cie, S.A.	2.43%	$0.40	12.44%
002236.SZ	Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$0.46	38.43%
006730.KQ	Seobu T&D Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$309.73	27.66%
071050.KS	Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$3,984.93	13.09%
0DQK.L	Beter Bed Holding N.V.	2.42%	$0.15	53.98%
2409.TW	AUO Corporation	2.42%	$0.31	41.22%
300453.SZ	Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.,Ltd.	2.42%	$0.21	45.08%
600064.SS	Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited	2.42%	$0.21	15.60%
601236.SS	Hongta Securities Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$0.20	95.69%
9550.SR	Sure Global Tech Company	2.42%	$1.52	28.67%
9562.SR	Foods Gate Trading Co.	2.42%	$0.67	13.40%
AEONTS-R.BK	AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited	2.42%	$2.60	21.04%
NMAN.ST	Nederman Holding AB (publ)	2.42%	$4.00	47.45%
SALIK.AE	Salik Company P.J.S.C.	2.42%	$0.16	83.74%
SKMO.ST	Skåne-möllan AB (publ)	2.42%	$1.40	96.86%
001130.KS	Daehan Flour Mills Co.,Ltd	2.41%	$3,470.92	10.83%
080160.KQ	Modetour Network Inc.	2.41%	$249.37	24.80%
0U96.L	Everest Re Group, Ltd.	2.41%	$8.07	61.23%
3591.T	Wacoal Holdings Corp.	2.41%	$106.27	49.77%
601966.SS	Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd.	2.41%	$0.35	42.43%
7951.T	Yamaha Corporation	2.41%	$26.35	66.95%
BORG.ST	Björn Borg AB (publ)	2.41%	$1.50	43.49%
EIOF.OL	Eidesvik Offshore ASA	2.41%	$0.30	28.32%
ETTE.HE	Etteplan Oyj	2.41%	$0.23	71.21%
ZZ-B.ST	Zinzino AB (publ)	2.41%	$3.76	58.64%
002968.SZ	New Dazheng Property Group Co., Ltd.	2.40%	$0.29	59.28%
0NZN.L	Robertet S.A.	2.40%	$21.10	23.60%
4015.SR	Jamjoom Pharmaceuticals Factory Company	2.40%	$3.46	54.14%
7703.TWO	Rayzher	2.40%	$5.49	59.71%
BBL.AX	Brisbane Broncos Limited	2.40%	$0.04	25.15%
002158.SZ	Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co., Ltd.	2.39%	$0.60	60.14%
004690.KS	Samchully Co.,Ltd	2.39%	$3,000.02	10.30%
0GVS.L	Catena AB (publ)	2.39%	$8.76	32.84%
300577.SZ	Anhui Korrun Co., Ltd.	2.39%	$0.51	36.22%
3044.TW	Tripod Technology Corporation	2.39%	$7.48	42.14%
603080.SS	Xinjiang Torch Gas Co., Ltd	2.39%	$0.57	43.55%
6780.TWO	Study King Co., Ltd.	2.39%	$0.80	89.60%
6804.T	Hosiden Corporation	2.39%	$59.44	25.81%
KBLM.JK	PT Kabelindo Murni Tbk	2.39%	$8.08	12.05%
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Financial Statements

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UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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