DDM Analysis: UBFO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.42 - $12.17	$9.54
Multi-Stage	$12.61 - $13.82	$13.20
Blended Fair Value	$11.37
Current Price	$9.33
Upside	21.85%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.18%	0.00%	0.48	0.46	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.27	0.17	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	5.55%	4.99%	0.09%	0.28%	0.13%	57.61%	64.88%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.37%	6.05%	6.81%	5.23%	5.28%	6.75%	2.54%	1.55%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	11.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.27	1.42	0.85
Cash Retained (M)	3.02	3.02	3.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.27	-1.42	-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	0.74	1.60	2.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	17.26	17.26	17.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.09	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.48	0.48	0.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.09	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.53	0.58	0.61
WACC / Discount Rate	7.29%	7.29%	7.29%
Growth Rate	0.18%	1.18%	2.18%
Fair Value	$7.42	$9.54	$12.17
Upside / Downside	-20.47%	2.22%	30.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	11.37	11.50	11.64	11.78	11.92	12.06	12.42
Payout Ratio	73.45%	76.76%	80.07%	83.38%	86.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8.35	8.83	9.32	9.82	10.33	10.85	11.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.29%	7.29%	7.29%
Growth Rate	0.18%	1.18%	2.18%
Year 1 PV (M)	8.15	8.23	8.31
Year 2 PV (M)	7.94	8.10	8.26
Year 3 PV (M)	7.72	7.95	8.19
Year 4 PV (M)	7.49	7.79	8.11
Year 5 PV (M)	7.26	7.63	8.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	179.07	188.19	197.67
Equity Value (M)	217.62	227.89	238.55
Shares Outstanding (M)	17.26	17.26	17.26
Fair Value	$12.61	$13.20	$13.82
Upside / Downside	35.11%	41.48%	48.10%

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United Security Bancshares (UBFO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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