DDM Analysis: TWPC.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.35 - $2.00	$1.66
Multi-Stage	$2.95 - $3.25	$3.10
Blended Fair Value	$2.38
Current Price	$2.54
Upside	-6.24%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-22.31%	-6.51%	0.09	0.22	0.22	0.13	0.13	0.32	0.32	0.21	0.36	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-57.84%	-0.01%	61.08%	0.08%	-58.34%	0.40%	52.43%	-41.66%	4,091,037.75%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.82%	5.96%	4.44%	1.97%	2.75%	11.47%	3.88%	1.68%	3.07%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	152.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	50.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)	102.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30.46	19.04	11.42
Cash Retained (M)	102.20	102.20	102.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30.46	-19.04	-11.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)	71.73	83.16	90.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	880.42	880.42	880.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
Growth Rate	-2.93%	-1.93%	-0.93%
Fair Value	$1.35	$1.66	$2.00
Upside / Downside	-46.75%	-34.58%	-21.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	152.32	149.38	146.49	143.66	140.89	138.16	142.31
Payout Ratio	32.91%	44.33%	55.74%	67.16%	78.58%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	50.13	66.22	81.66	96.49	110.71	124.35	131.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
Growth Rate	-2.93%	-1.93%	-0.93%
Year 1 PV (M)	61.25	61.88	62.51
Year 2 PV (M)	69.88	71.33	72.79
Year 3 PV (M)	76.38	78.76	81.19
Year 4 PV (M)	81.06	84.46	87.95
Year 5 PV (M)	84.22	88.65	93.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,228.31	2,345.48	2,467.53
Equity Value (M)	2,601.10	2,730.56	2,865.24
Shares Outstanding (M)	880.42	880.42	880.42
Fair Value	$2.95	$3.10	$3.25
Upside / Downside	16.31%	22.10%	28.13%

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Financial Statements

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Thai Wah Public Company Limited (TWPC.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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