DDM Analysis: TOTO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$553.02 - $1,041.34	$751.26
Multi-Stage	$824.48 - $905.13	$864.04
Blended Fair Value	$807.65
Current Price	$224.00
Upside	260.56%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.89%	3.39%	20.04	18.19	16.22	9.54	2.86	10.46	17.10	7.61	11.40	11.17
YoY Growth	-	-	10.21%	12.12%	70.05%	233.76%	-72.68%	-38.82%	124.82%	-33.26%	2.07%	-22.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.37%	8.34%	6.14%	4.22%	1.35%	5.23%	4.30%	2.03%	2.46%	1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	376,436.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	135,925.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	240,510.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	75,287.29	47,054.56	28,232.73
Cash Retained (M)	240,510.59	240,510.59	240,510.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-75,287.29	-47,054.56	-28,232.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	165,223.30	193,456.03	212,277.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,320.00	10,320.00	10,320.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	16.01	18.75	20.57
LTM Dividend per Share	13.17	13.17	13.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	16.01	18.75	20.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend	29.18	31.92	33.74
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	1.39%	2.39%	3.39%
Fair Value	$553.02	$751.26	$1,041.34
Upside / Downside	146.89%	235.38%	364.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	376,436.45	385,425.96	394,630.16	404,054.15	413,703.19	423,582.66	436,290.14
Payout Ratio	36.11%	46.89%	57.67%	68.44%	79.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	135,925.86	180,714.15	227,564.06	276,548.53	327,742.77	381,224.40	403,568.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	1.39%	2.39%	3.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	167,652.80	169,306.37	170,959.95
Year 2 PV (M)	195,857.85	199,740.43	203,661.12
Year 3 PV (M)	220,814.35	227,412.75	234,141.30
Year 4 PV (M)	242,777.10	252,497.88	262,507.68
Year 5 PV (M)	261,983.50	275,160.73	288,862.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,419,543.24	7,792,730.84	8,180,786.08
Equity Value (M)	8,508,628.84	8,916,849.00	9,340,919.05
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,320.00	10,320.00	10,320.00
Fair Value	$824.48	$864.04	$905.13
Upside / Downside	268.07%	285.73%	304.07%

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PT Surya Toto Indonesia Tbk (TOTO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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