DDM Analysis: TOL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$260.52 - $567.38	$373.33
Multi-Stage	$185.76 - $203.05	$194.25
Blended Fair Value	$283.79
Current Price	$134.95
Upside	110.29%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	7.97%	0.00%	0.93	0.91	0.89	0.77	0.57	0.64	0.62	0.39	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	2.55%	2.45%	16.02%	35.41%	-11.08%	3.14%	59.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.69%	0.67%	0.89%	1.29%	0.96%	1.23%	1.39%	1.04%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,346.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	96.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,250.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	269.30	168.31	100.99
Cash Retained (M)	1,250.12	1,250.12	1,250.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-269.30	-168.31	-100.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	980.82	1,081.81	1,149.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	100.12	100.12	100.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	9.80	10.81	11.48
LTM Dividend per Share	0.96	0.96	0.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share	9.80	10.81	11.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend	10.76	11.77	12.44
WACC / Discount Rate	9.86%	9.86%	9.86%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$260.52	$373.33	$567.38
Upside / Downside	93.05%	176.64%	320.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,346.49	1,434.01	1,527.22	1,626.49	1,732.21	1,844.80	1,900.15
Payout Ratio	7.16%	23.73%	40.29%	56.86%	73.43%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	96.37	340.23	615.38	924.87	1,271.99	1,660.32	1,757.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.86%	9.86%	9.86%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	306.79	309.70	312.61
Year 2 PV (M)	500.37	509.90	519.53
Year 3 PV (M)	678.12	697.58	717.42
Year 4 PV (M)	840.97	873.32	906.58
Year 5 PV (M)	989.85	1,037.66	1,087.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,281.59	16,019.70	16,786.06
Equity Value (M)	18,597.70	19,447.86	20,329.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	100.12	100.12	100.12
Fair Value	$185.76	$194.25	$203.05
Upside / Downside	37.65%	43.94%	50.47%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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