DDM Analysis: TNL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$32.02 - $43.82	$38.00
Multi-Stage	$54.41 - $59.64	$56.97
Blended Fair Value	$47.49
Current Price	$59.49
Upside	-20.18%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.07%	-2.29%	2.10	2.01	2.00	1.61	2.04	2.46	2.87	3.58	3.30	2.99
YoY Growth	-	-	4.41%	0.74%	23.85%	-21.01%	-16.87%	-14.43%	-19.83%	8.52%	10.40%	12.85%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.54%	4.20%	5.09%	2.78%	3.34%	11.32%	6.96%	6.93%	8.67%	8.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	411.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	226.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	185.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	82.20	51.38	30.83
Cash Retained (M)	185.00	185.00	185.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-82.20	-51.38	-30.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	102.80	133.63	154.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	67.60	67.60	67.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.52	1.98	2.28
LTM Dividend per Share	3.34	3.34	3.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.52	1.98	2.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.86	5.32	5.62
WACC / Discount Rate	10.25%	10.25%	10.25%
Growth Rate	-4.29%	-3.29%	-2.29%
Fair Value	$32.02	$38.00	$43.82
Upside / Downside	-46.18%	-36.13%	-26.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	411.00	397.48	384.41	371.77	359.54	347.71	358.14
Payout Ratio	54.99%	61.99%	68.99%	76.00%	83.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	226.00	246.40	265.21	282.52	298.41	312.94	331.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.25%	10.25%	10.25%
Growth Rate	-4.29%	-3.29%	-2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	221.18	223.49	225.80
Year 2 PV (M)	213.70	218.19	222.72
Year 3 PV (M)	204.35	210.82	217.43
Year 4 PV (M)	193.74	201.97	210.45
Year 5 PV (M)	182.38	192.11	202.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,662.76	2,804.80	2,952.84
Equity Value (M)	3,678.11	3,851.38	4,031.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	67.60	67.60	67.60
Fair Value	$54.41	$56.97	$59.64
Upside / Downside	-8.54%	-4.23%	0.25%

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Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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