DDM Analysis: TEXF.BR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$489.82 - $1,067.39	$1,000.30
Multi-Stage	$163.65 - $178.98	$171.18
Blended Fair Value	$585.74
Current Price	$33.80
Upside	1,632.96%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.84%	16.80%	1.64	1.57	1.43	0.69	0.60	0.94	0.79	0.66	0.56	0.46
YoY Growth	-	-	4.55%	10.00%	106.63%	14.50%	-35.68%	19.27%	18.77%	19.18%	19.87%	33.41%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.69%	4.76%	4.25%	2.13%	1.59%	2.52%	2.92%	2.18%	1.70%	1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7.21

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.94	2.46	1.48
Cash Retained (M)	7.21	7.21	7.21
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.94	-2.46	-1.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.28	4.75	5.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3.67	3.67	3.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.89	1.30	1.56
LTM Dividend per Share	3.40	3.40	3.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.89	1.30	1.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.29	4.70	4.96
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$489.82	$1,000.30	$1,067.39
Upside / Downside	1,349.18%	2,859.48%	3,057.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19.68	20.96	22.32	23.77	25.32	26.96	27.77
Payout Ratio	63.35%	68.68%	74.01%	79.34%	84.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.47	14.39	16.52	18.86	21.44	24.27	25.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	13.40	13.53	13.65
Year 2 PV (M)	14.31	14.59	14.86
Year 3 PV (M)	15.21	15.65	16.09
Year 4 PV (M)	16.09	16.71	17.35
Year 5 PV (M)	16.95	17.77	18.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	524.08	549.39	575.67
Equity Value (M)	600.04	627.63	656.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	3.67	3.67	3.67
Fair Value	$163.65	$171.18	$178.98
Upside / Downside	384.18%	406.44%	429.53%

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Texaf S.A. (TEXF.BR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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