DDM Analysis: TCFC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$321.99 - $1,033.13	$968.19
Multi-Stage	$134.88 - $147.72	$141.18
Blended Fair Value	$554.69
Current Price	$33.13
Upside	1,574.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	15.78%	10.19%	0.66	0.56	0.50	0.47	0.38	0.32	0.32	0.34	0.36	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	18.39%	12.45%	5.66%	23.35%	19.90%	-0.55%	-5.32%	-6.76%	30.15%	11.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.00%	1.39%	1.46%	2.14%	1.36%	0.86%	0.89%	1.60%	1.82%	1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	29.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.87	3.67	2.20
Cash Retained (M)	25.62	25.62	25.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.87	-3.67	-2.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	19.75	21.95	23.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5.65	5.65	5.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.49	3.88	4.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.66	0.66	0.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.49	3.88	4.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.16	4.55	4.81
WACC / Discount Rate	6.86%	6.86%	6.86%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$321.99	$968.19	$1,033.13
Upside / Downside	871.90%	2,822.41%	3,018.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	29.36	31.26	33.30	35.46	37.77	40.22	41.43
Payout Ratio	12.72%	28.18%	43.63%	59.09%	74.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3.74	8.81	14.53	20.95	28.15	36.20	38.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.86%	6.86%	6.86%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	8.17	8.24	8.32
Year 2 PV (M)	12.48	12.72	12.96
Year 3 PV (M)	16.69	17.17	17.66
Year 4 PV (M)	20.79	21.59	22.41
Year 5 PV (M)	24.78	25.98	27.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	679.29	712.10	746.16
Equity Value (M)	762.20	797.80	834.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	5.65	5.65	5.65
Fair Value	$134.88	$141.18	$147.72
Upside / Downside	307.12%	326.14%	345.87%

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The Community Financial Corporation (TCFC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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