DDM Analysis: SU

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$117.25 - $409.59	$193.63
Multi-Stage	$108.30 - $118.59	$113.35
Blended Fair Value	$153.49
Current Price	$58.20
Upside	163.73%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.41%	6.52%	2.27	2.23	2.10	1.26	1.35	2.12	1.89	1.72	1.52	1.34
YoY Growth	-	-	1.96%	5.89%	67.48%	-7.19%	-36.11%	12.04%	9.84%	13.16%	13.90%	10.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.08%	4.42%	5.01%	3.08%	5.16%	9.54%	4.30%	3.87%	3.72%	3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,260.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,803.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,457.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,052.00	657.50	394.50
Cash Retained (M)	2,457.00	2,457.00	2,457.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,052.00	-657.50	-394.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,405.00	1,799.50	2,062.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,233.50	1,233.50	1,233.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.14	1.46	1.67
LTM Dividend per Share	2.27	2.27	2.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.14	1.46	1.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.41	3.73	3.94
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	3.74%	4.74%	5.74%
Fair Value	$117.25	$193.63	$409.59
Upside / Downside	101.46%	232.70%	603.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,260.00	5,509.37	5,770.57	6,044.15	6,330.70	6,630.84	6,829.77
Payout Ratio	53.29%	60.63%	67.97%	75.32%	82.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,803.00	3,340.40	3,922.45	4,552.19	5,232.82	5,967.76	6,317.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	3.74%	4.74%	5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,099.03	3,128.91	3,158.78
Year 2 PV (M)	3,376.09	3,441.49	3,507.52
Year 3 PV (M)	3,635.00	3,741.13	3,849.32
Year 4 PV (M)	3,876.57	4,028.22	4,184.27
Year 5 PV (M)	4,101.58	4,303.11	4,512.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)	115,500.24	121,175.36	127,071.40
Equity Value (M)	133,588.52	139,818.22	146,283.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,233.50	1,233.50	1,233.50
Fair Value	$108.30	$113.35	$118.59
Upside / Downside	86.08%	94.76%	103.77%

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Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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