DDM Analysis: STO.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$38.60 - $139.69	$122.16
Multi-Stage	$18.18 - $19.87	$19.01
Blended Fair Value	$70.58
Current Price	$5.04
Upside	1,300.46%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	31.61%	19.98%	0.30	0.24	0.16	0.07	0.04	0.08	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	27.54%	44.96%	142.53%	62.50%	-45.82%	243.84%	0.00%	-100.00%	-72.53%	-2.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.36%	4.60%	3.38%	1.48%	0.86%	1.34%	0.58%	0.00%	0.46%	1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,289.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,605.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	684.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	457.80	286.13	171.68
Cash Retained (M)	684.00	684.00	684.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-457.80	-286.13	-171.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	226.20	397.88	512.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,258.78	3,258.78	3,258.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.12	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.49	0.49	0.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.12	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.56	0.61	0.65
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$38.60	$122.16	$139.69
Upside / Downside	665.88%	2,323.77%	2,671.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,289.00	2,437.79	2,596.24	2,765.00	2,944.72	3,136.13	3,230.21
Payout Ratio	70.12%	74.09%	78.07%	82.05%	86.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,605.00	1,806.26	2,026.91	2,268.60	2,533.16	2,822.52	2,987.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,671.68	1,687.53	1,703.37
Year 2 PV (M)	1,736.12	1,769.19	1,802.57
Year 3 PV (M)	1,798.37	1,850.00	1,902.60
Year 4 PV (M)	1,858.47	1,929.95	2,003.46
Year 5 PV (M)	1,916.48	2,009.05	2,105.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)	50,269.95	52,698.01	55,219.00
Equity Value (M)	59,251.09	61,943.72	64,736.16
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,258.78	3,258.78	3,258.78
Fair Value	$18.18	$19.01	$19.87
Upside / Downside	260.75%	277.15%	294.15%

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Santos Limited (STO.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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