Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sofina S.A. (SOF.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$543.64 - $1,307.48$805.76
Multi-Stage$378.12 - $413.30$395.39
Blended Fair Value$600.57
Current Price$280.00
Upside114.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.44%3.95%3.323.223.133.032.912.802.682.572.462.36
YoY Growth--2.97%3.00%3.28%3.92%4.03%4.51%4.35%4.47%4.12%4.88%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.43%1.52%0.70%1.05%1.45%1.62%1.96%1.96%2.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)847.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)111.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)735.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.44105.9063.54
Cash Retained (M)735.97735.97735.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.44-105.90-63.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)566.53630.07672.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.5533.5533.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.8918.7820.04
LTM Dividend per Share3.323.323.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.8918.7820.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.2022.1023.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$543.64$805.76$1,307.48
Upside / Downside94.16%187.77%366.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)847.21902.28960.931,023.391,089.911,160.751,195.58
Payout Ratio13.13%28.50%43.88%59.25%74.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)111.24257.19421.64606.38813.361,044.681,105.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)232.84235.04237.25
Year 2 PV (M)345.58352.16358.80
Year 3 PV (M)449.94462.86476.02
Year 4 PV (M)546.38567.39589.01
Year 5 PV (M)635.33666.02697.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,475.2110,981.1611,506.49
Equity Value (M)12,685.2813,264.6413,865.45
Shares Outstanding (M)33.5533.5533.55
Fair Value$378.12$395.39$413.30
Upside / Downside35.04%41.21%47.61%

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