DDM Analysis: SIGI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$274.89 - $1,321.11	$595.47
Multi-Stage	$146.25 - $160.02	$153.01
Blended Fair Value	$374.24
Current Price	$81.07
Upside	361.63%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.24%	11.57%	1.39	1.21	1.09	0.98	0.89	0.78	0.69	0.61	0.55	0.51
YoY Growth	-	-	15.05%	10.32%	11.28%	10.37%	14.29%	13.25%	13.64%	9.74%	8.71%	9.23%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.52%	1.13%	1.15%	1.10%	1.23%	1.57%	1.08%	1.00%	1.17%	1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	406.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	90.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)	316.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	81.34	50.84	30.50
Cash Retained (M)	316.46	316.46	316.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-81.34	-50.84	-30.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	235.12	265.62	285.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	61.23	61.23	61.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.84	4.34	4.67
LTM Dividend per Share	1.47	1.47	1.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.84	4.34	4.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.31	5.81	6.14
WACC / Discount Rate	7.54%	7.54%	7.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$274.89	$595.47	$1,321.11
Upside / Downside	239.08%	634.52%	1,529.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	406.71	433.15	461.31	491.29	523.22	557.23	573.95
Payout Ratio	22.19%	35.75%	49.31%	62.88%	76.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	90.26	154.86	227.49	308.91	399.94	501.51	530.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.54%	7.54%	7.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	142.65	144.01	145.36
Year 2 PV (M)	193.03	196.71	200.42
Year 3 PV (M)	241.45	248.38	255.45
Year 4 PV (M)	287.96	299.04	310.43
Year 5 PV (M)	332.62	348.69	365.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,756.64	8,131.28	8,520.27
Equity Value (M)	8,954.36	9,368.11	9,797.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	61.23	61.23	61.23
Fair Value	$146.25	$153.01	$160.02
Upside / Downside	80.40%	88.74%	97.39%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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