DDM Analysis: SHANG.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.11 - $14.03	$12.07
Multi-Stage	$16.98 - $18.61	$17.78
Blended Fair Value	$14.93
Current Price	$53.50
Upside	-72.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.97%	-3.97%	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.24	2.24	2.24	1.99	1.99	0.75
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	12.50%	0.00%	166.67%	-50.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	4.25%	3.46%	2.64%	2.86%	2.89%	1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	228.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	98.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	45.67	28.54	17.13
Cash Retained (M)	98.35	98.35	98.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-45.67	-28.54	-17.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	52.68	69.80	81.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	130.46	130.46	130.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.54	0.62
LTM Dividend per Share	1.00	1.00	1.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.54	0.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.40	1.53	1.62
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-3.38%	-2.38%	-1.38%
Fair Value	$10.11	$12.07	$14.03
Upside / Downside	-81.10%	-77.43%	-73.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	228.35	222.90	217.59	212.41	207.35	202.40	208.48
Payout Ratio	56.93%	63.54%	70.16%	76.77%	83.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	130.00	141.64	152.66	163.07	172.90	182.16	192.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-3.38%	-2.38%	-1.38%
Year 1 PV (M)	127.45	128.77	130.09
Year 2 PV (M)	123.59	126.17	128.76
Year 3 PV (M)	118.79	122.52	126.32
Year 4 PV (M)	113.33	118.09	123.01
Year 5 PV (M)	107.43	113.11	119.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,624.72	1,710.56	1,799.99
Equity Value (M)	2,215.31	2,319.21	2,427.19
Shares Outstanding (M)	130.46	130.46	130.46
Fair Value	$16.98	$17.78	$18.61
Upside / Downside	-68.26%	-66.77%	-65.22%

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603599.SS	Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd.	2.43%	$0.28	35.02%
605286.SS	Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co., Ltd.	2.43%	$0.99	75.51%
9569.SR	Almuneef Company for Trade, Industry, Agriculture and Contracting	2.43%	$0.20	19.26%
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KEPEN.AT	Flour Mills Kepenos S.A.	2.43%	$0.05	39.82%
MSAB-B.ST	Micro Systemation AB (publ)	2.43%	$1.50	65.33%
NEOE3.SA	Neoenergia S.A.	2.43%	$0.77	21.26%
OV8.SI	Sheng Siong Group Ltd	2.43%	$0.06	66.54%
VIL.PA	VIEL & Cie, S.A.	2.43%	$0.40	12.44%
002236.SZ	Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$0.46	38.43%
006730.KQ	Seobu T&D Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$309.73	27.66%
071050.KS	Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$3,984.93	13.09%
0DQK.L	Beter Bed Holding N.V.	2.42%	$0.15	53.98%
2409.TW	AUO Corporation	2.42%	$0.31	41.22%
300453.SZ	Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.,Ltd.	2.42%	$0.21	45.08%
600064.SS	Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited	2.42%	$0.21	15.60%
601236.SS	Hongta Securities Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$0.20	95.69%
9550.SR	Sure Global Tech Company	2.42%	$1.52	28.67%
9562.SR	Foods Gate Trading Co.	2.42%	$0.67	13.40%
AEONTS-R.BK	AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited	2.42%	$2.60	21.04%
NMAN.ST	Nederman Holding AB (publ)	2.42%	$4.00	47.45%
SALIK.AE	Salik Company P.J.S.C.	2.42%	$0.16	83.74%
SKMO.ST	Skåne-möllan AB (publ)	2.42%	$1.40	96.86%
001130.KS	Daehan Flour Mills Co.,Ltd	2.41%	$3,470.92	10.83%
080160.KQ	Modetour Network Inc.	2.41%	$249.37	24.80%
0U96.L	Everest Re Group, Ltd.	2.41%	$8.07	61.23%
3591.T	Wacoal Holdings Corp.	2.41%	$106.27	49.77%
601966.SS	Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd.	2.41%	$0.35	42.43%
7951.T	Yamaha Corporation	2.41%	$26.35	66.95%
BORG.ST	Björn Borg AB (publ)	2.41%	$1.50	43.49%
EIOF.OL	Eidesvik Offshore ASA	2.41%	$0.30	28.32%
ETTE.HE	Etteplan Oyj	2.41%	$0.23	71.21%
ZZ-B.ST	Zinzino AB (publ)	2.41%	$3.76	58.64%
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4015.SR	Jamjoom Pharmaceuticals Factory Company	2.40%	$3.46	54.14%
7703.TWO	Rayzher	2.40%	$5.49	59.71%
BBL.AX	Brisbane Broncos Limited	2.40%	$0.04	25.15%
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0GVS.L	Catena AB (publ)	2.39%	$8.76	32.84%
300577.SZ	Anhui Korrun Co., Ltd.	2.39%	$0.51	36.22%
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6780.TWO	Study King Co., Ltd.	2.39%	$0.80	89.60%
6804.T	Hosiden Corporation	2.39%	$59.44	25.81%
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Financial Statements

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Shangri-La Hotel Public Company Limited (SHANG.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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