DDM Analysis: SCVL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.87 - $28.60	$23.45
Multi-Stage	$23.78 - $26.04	$24.89
Blended Fair Value	$24.17
Current Price	$18.33
Upside	31.84%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	21.00%	11.79%	0.53	0.44	0.36	0.29	0.19	0.21	0.17	0.18	0.18	0.18
YoY Growth	-	-	20.68%	22.24%	24.68%	55.97%	-9.58%	19.06%	-1.16%	-4.16%	-0.18%	4.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.94%	1.28%	1.56%	0.96%	0.62%	1.84%	0.96%	1.46%	1.44%	1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	16.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	41.57

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.58	7.23	4.34
Cash Retained (M)	41.57	41.57	41.57
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.58	-7.23	-4.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30.00	34.34	37.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	27.53	27.53	27.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.09	1.25	1.35
LTM Dividend per Share	0.59	0.59	0.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.09	1.25	1.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.68	1.84	1.94
WACC / Discount Rate	10.03%	10.03%	10.03%
Growth Rate	1.02%	2.02%	3.02%
Fair Value	$18.87	$23.45	$28.60
Upside / Downside	2.95%	27.92%	56.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57.88	59.05	60.24	61.46	62.70	63.97	65.89
Payout Ratio	28.17%	40.54%	52.90%	65.27%	77.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	16.31	23.94	31.87	40.11	48.68	57.57	60.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.03%	10.03%	10.03%
Growth Rate	1.02%	2.02%	3.02%
Year 1 PV (M)	21.54	21.76	21.97
Year 2 PV (M)	25.81	26.33	26.84
Year 3 PV (M)	29.24	30.12	31.01
Year 4 PV (M)	31.93	33.22	34.54
Year 5 PV (M)	33.99	35.70	37.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)	512.07	537.92	564.81
Equity Value (M)	654.59	685.04	716.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	27.53	27.53	27.53
Fair Value	$23.78	$24.89	$26.04
Upside / Downside	29.73%	35.77%	42.04%

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Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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