Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Safehold Inc. (SAFE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.60 - $71.11$45.80
Multi-Stage$23.39 - $25.51$24.43
Blended Fair Value$35.11
Current Price$15.56
Upside125.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.93%-0.14%0.710.640.590.500.000.230.150.040.720.72
YoY Growth--9.88%9.13%17.36%0.00%-100.00%52.12%283.54%-94.45%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.77%3.20%2.00%0.90%0.00%0.37%0.70%0.25%1.25%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)112.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.5314.088.45
Cash Retained (M)61.7661.7661.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.53-14.08-8.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.2347.6853.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.6871.6871.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.670.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.670.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.371.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.60$45.80$71.11
Upside / Downside103.06%194.33%357.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)112.63119.95127.75136.05144.90154.32158.95
Payout Ratio45.17%54.13%63.10%72.07%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.8764.9480.6198.05117.42138.88147.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)58.6459.2059.75
Year 2 PV (M)65.7466.9968.25
Year 3 PV (M)72.2174.2876.39
Year 4 PV (M)78.0881.0984.17
Year 5 PV (M)83.4087.4391.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,318.361,382.041,448.15
Equity Value (M)1,676.431,751.021,828.34
Shares Outstanding (M)71.6871.6871.68
Fair Value$23.39$24.43$25.51
Upside / Downside50.30%56.99%63.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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