DDM Analysis: RIO1.DE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$222.45 - $453.65	$311.37
Multi-Stage	$278.09 - $304.51	$291.05
Blended Fair Value	$301.21
Current Price	$58.53
Upside	414.63%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.43%	6.59%	4.30	3.96	7.18	9.40	3.75	6.32	3.28	2.60	1.67	2.49
YoY Growth	-	-	8.58%	-44.83%	-23.64%	150.44%	-40.66%	92.94%	26.02%	55.96%	-33.15%	9.87%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.32%	5.29%	10.12%	13.88%	4.94%	10.67%	6.91%	4.86%	4.26%	8.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	21,021.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13,566.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7,455.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4,204.20	2,627.63	1,576.58
Cash Retained (M)	7,455.00	7,455.00	7,455.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4,204.20	-2,627.63	-1,576.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,250.80	4,827.38	5,878.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,634.06	1,634.06	1,634.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.99	2.95	3.60
LTM Dividend per Share	8.30	8.30	8.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.99	2.95	3.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend	10.29	11.26	11.90
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%	7.19%	7.19%
Growth Rate	2.45%	3.45%	4.45%
Fair Value	$222.45	$311.37	$453.65
Upside / Downside	280.06%	431.98%	675.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	21,021.00	21,745.83	22,495.64	23,271.32	24,073.73	24,903.82	25,650.94
Payout Ratio	64.54%	69.63%	74.72%	79.81%	84.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13,566.00	15,141.26	16,809.03	18,573.81	20,440.31	22,413.44	23,727.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%	7.19%	7.19%
Growth Rate	2.45%	3.45%	4.45%
Year 1 PV (M)	13,989.37	14,125.92	14,262.47
Year 2 PV (M)	14,348.77	14,630.26	14,914.48
Year 3 PV (M)	14,649.04	15,082.21	15,523.83
Year 4 PV (M)	14,894.69	15,484.81	16,092.30
Year 5 PV (M)	15,089.97	15,840.96	16,621.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	381,450.58	400,434.36	420,166.54
Equity Value (M)	454,422.42	475,598.51	497,581.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,634.06	1,634.06	1,634.06
Fair Value	$278.09	$291.05	$304.51
Upside / Downside	375.13%	397.27%	420.26%

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Rio Tinto Group (RIO1.DE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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