DDM Analysis: PXD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$669.31 - $3,936.94	$1,232.89
Multi-Stage	$405.42 - $442.74	$423.74
Blended Fair Value	$828.31
Current Price	$263.96
Upside	213.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	126.78%	76.67%	13.73	26.09	6.63	1.44	0.53	0.23	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-47.38%	293.29%	360.69%	172.44%	130.91%	292.86%	7.69%	8.33%	0.00%	7.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.20%	12.78%	2.65%	0.91%	0.75%	0.15%	0.03%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,756.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,580.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,176.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	951.20	594.50	356.70
Cash Retained (M)	2,176.00	2,176.00	2,176.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-951.20	-594.50	-356.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,224.80	1,581.50	1,819.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	240.25	240.25	240.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.10	6.58	7.57
LTM Dividend per Share	10.74	10.74	10.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.10	6.58	7.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend	15.84	17.32	18.31
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$669.31	$1,232.89	$3,936.94
Upside / Downside	153.57%	367.07%	1,391.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,756.00	5,065.14	5,394.37	5,745.01	6,118.43	6,516.13	6,711.62
Payout Ratio	54.25%	61.40%	68.55%	75.70%	82.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,580.00	3,109.89	3,697.75	4,348.91	5,069.09	5,864.52	6,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,852.58	2,879.62	2,906.66
Year 2 PV (M)	3,111.19	3,170.45	3,230.27
Year 3 PV (M)	3,356.31	3,452.66	3,550.83
Year 4 PV (M)	3,588.44	3,726.45	3,868.39
Year 5 PV (M)	3,808.05	3,991.98	4,182.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)	80,684.91	84,582.02	88,628.28
Equity Value (M)	97,401.49	101,803.18	106,367.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	240.25	240.25	240.25
Fair Value	$405.42	$423.74	$442.74
Upside / Downside	53.59%	60.53%	67.73%

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NMAN.ST	Nederman Holding AB (publ)	2.42%	$4.00	47.45%
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0U96.L	Everest Re Group, Ltd.	2.41%	$8.07	61.23%
3591.T	Wacoal Holdings Corp.	2.41%	$106.27	49.77%
601966.SS	Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd.	2.41%	$0.35	42.43%
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Financial Statements

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Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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