DDM Analysis: PRGS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.33 - $36.33	$25.39
Multi-Stage	$17.51 - $19.17	$18.33
Blended Fair Value	$21.86
Current Price	$46.29
Upside	-52.78%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.53%	0.00%	0.71	0.71	0.70	0.71	0.67	0.62	0.58	0.54	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.30%	1.58%	-1.58%	5.56%	7.71%	7.64%	6.89%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.29%	1.33%	1.22%	1.61%	1.54%	1.67%	1.58%	1.16%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	48.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	40.24

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.71	6.07	3.64
Cash Retained (M)	40.24	40.24	40.24
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.71	-6.07	-3.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30.53	34.17	36.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	44.49	44.49	44.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.77	0.82
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.77	0.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.87	0.95	1.01
WACC / Discount Rate	8.61%	8.61%	8.61%
Growth Rate	3.67%	4.67%	5.67%
Fair Value	$18.33	$25.39	$36.33
Upside / Downside	-60.40%	-45.15%	-21.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	48.54	50.80	53.18	55.66	58.27	60.99	62.82
Payout Ratio	17.10%	31.68%	46.26%	60.84%	75.42%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8.30	16.10	24.60	33.87	43.94	54.89	58.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.61%	8.61%	8.61%
Growth Rate	3.67%	4.67%	5.67%
Year 1 PV (M)	14.68	14.82	14.96
Year 2 PV (M)	20.46	20.85	21.26
Year 3 PV (M)	25.68	26.43	27.20
Year 4 PV (M)	30.39	31.58	32.81
Year 5 PV (M)	34.62	36.32	38.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	653.29	685.41	718.78
Equity Value (M)	779.11	815.42	853.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	44.49	44.49	44.49
Fair Value	$17.51	$18.33	$19.17
Upside / Downside	-62.17%	-60.41%	-58.58%

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Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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