DDM Analysis: PNGO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4,084.48 - $6,585.77	$5,211.85
Multi-Stage	$5,755.93 - $6,317.20	$6,031.22
Blended Fair Value	$5,621.54
Current Price	$2,420.00
Upside	132.29%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	5.63%	0.00%	92.19	130.00	120.00	102.00	51.20	70.12	44.80	64.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-29.08%	8.33%	17.65%	99.22%	-26.98%	56.51%	-30.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.69%	8.97%	9.09%	6.87%	4.95%	22.47%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	294,674.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	62,700.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	231,974.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	58,934.84	36,834.28	22,100.57
Cash Retained (M)	231,974.22	231,974.22	231,974.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-58,934.84	-36,834.28	-22,100.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	173,039.38	195,139.94	209,873.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	781.25	781.25	781.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	221.49	249.78	268.64
LTM Dividend per Share	80.26	80.26	80.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	221.49	249.78	268.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend	301.75	330.04	348.89
WACC / Discount Rate	8.21%	8.21%	8.21%
Growth Rate	0.77%	1.77%	2.77%
Fair Value	$4,084.48	$5,211.85	$6,585.77
Upside / Downside	68.78%	115.37%	172.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	294,674.22	299,879.52	305,176.76	310,567.58	316,053.62	321,636.58	331,285.67
Payout Ratio	21.28%	35.02%	48.77%	62.51%	76.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	62,700.00	105,024.37	148,824.46	194,139.19	241,008.42	289,472.92	306,439.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.21%	8.21%	8.21%
Growth Rate	0.77%	1.77%	2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	96,101.72	97,055.42	98,009.13
Year 2 PV (M)	124,611.02	127,096.55	129,606.63
Year 3 PV (M)	148,742.96	153,215.40	157,776.60
Year 4 PV (M)	168,964.90	175,772.59	182,783.95
Year 5 PV (M)	185,700.59	195,099.70	204,875.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,772,701.16	3,963,653.99	4,162,261.69
Equity Value (M)	4,496,822.34	4,711,893.66	4,935,313.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	781.25	781.25	781.25
Fair Value	$5,755.93	$6,031.22	$6,317.20
Upside / Downside	137.85%	149.22%	161.04%

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Financial Statements

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PT PINAGO UTAMA Tbk (PNGO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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