DDM Analysis: PJAA.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$474.11 - $655.72	$565.41
Multi-Stage	$1,310.05 - $1,449.28	$1,378.23
Blended Fair Value	$971.82
Current Price	$474.00
Upside	105.03%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-9.60%	-4.99%	32.00	29.00	0.00	1.80	0.00	53.00	52.00	31.00	69.00	65.00
YoY Growth	-	-	10.34%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	1.92%	67.74%	-55.07%	6.15%	21.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.34%	3.28%	0.00%	0.34%	0.00%	12.16%	3.82%	2.21%	3.92%	3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	139,660.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	38,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	101,260.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27,932.00	17,457.50	10,474.50
Cash Retained (M)	101,260.00	101,260.00	101,260.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27,932.00	-17,457.50	-10,474.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	73,328.00	83,802.50	90,785.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,600.00	1,600.00	1,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	45.83	52.38	56.74
LTM Dividend per Share	24.00	24.00	24.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	45.83	52.38	56.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	69.83	76.38	80.74
WACC / Discount Rate	6.71%	6.71%	6.71%
Growth Rate	-6.99%	-5.99%	-4.99%
Fair Value	$474.11	$565.41	$655.72
Upside / Downside	0.02%	19.29%	38.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	139,660.00	131,291.79	123,424.98	116,029.54	109,077.23	102,541.49	105,617.73
Payout Ratio	27.50%	40.00%	52.50%	65.00%	77.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	38,400.00	52,511.83	64,794.67	75,417.04	84,533.84	92,287.34	97,696.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.71%	6.71%	6.71%
Growth Rate	-6.99%	-5.99%	-4.99%
Year 1 PV (M)	48,687.81	49,211.29	49,734.77
Year 2 PV (M)	55,701.33	56,905.54	58,122.63
Year 3 PV (M)	60,111.69	62,071.53	64,073.51
Year 4 PV (M)	62,471.68	65,202.04	68,020.93
Year 5 PV (M)	63,235.05	66,708.37	70,332.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,805,875.02	1,905,066.72	2,008,569.98
Equity Value (M)	2,096,082.58	2,205,165.50	2,318,854.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,600.00	1,600.00	1,600.00
Fair Value	$1,310.05	$1,378.23	$1,449.28
Upside / Downside	176.38%	190.77%	205.76%

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PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (PJAA.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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