Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.71 - $137.94$69.11
Multi-Stage$28.90 - $31.53$30.19
Blended Fair Value$49.65
Current Price$19.28
Upside157.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.76%10.83%0.770.560.550.550.500.560.410.460.350.32
YoY Growth--39.35%0.59%0.76%8.59%-9.59%35.83%-10.63%32.20%9.89%14.31%
Dividend Yield--4.51%3.83%2.88%2.34%2.27%4.34%1.56%1.80%1.35%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)207.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.5525.9715.58
Cash Retained (M)80.7580.7580.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.55-25.97-15.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.2054.7865.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.37130.37130.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.420.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.420.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.271.391.47
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.71$69.11$137.94
Upside / Downside121.53%258.44%615.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)207.73221.23235.61250.93267.24284.61293.14
Payout Ratio61.13%66.90%72.68%78.45%84.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.98148.01171.24196.85225.08256.15271.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)134.95136.23137.51
Year 2 PV (M)142.35145.06147.80
Year 3 PV (M)149.20153.49157.85
Year 4 PV (M)155.54161.53167.68
Year 5 PV (M)161.39169.19177.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,024.613,170.703,322.38
Equity Value (M)3,768.053,936.194,110.50
Shares Outstanding (M)130.37130.37130.37
Fair Value$28.90$30.19$31.53
Upside / Downside49.91%56.60%63.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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