DDM Analysis: PCAR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$141.15 - $482.00	$231.74
Multi-Stage	$96.90 - $105.61	$101.18
Blended Fair Value	$166.46
Current Price	$98.32
Upside	69.30%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.98%	13.88%	4.34	2.88	1.91	1.34	2.35	2.16	1.53	1.06	1.57	1.29
YoY Growth	-	-	50.70%	51.15%	41.91%	-42.89%	8.89%	41.56%	44.06%	-32.68%	21.87%	9.09%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.46%	2.34%	2.61%	2.29%	3.80%	5.30%	3.32%	2.40%	3.51%	3.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,690.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,251.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	439.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	538.18	336.36	201.82
Cash Retained (M)	439.80	439.80	439.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-538.18	-336.36	-201.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-98.38	103.44	237.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	526.77	526.77	526.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.19	0.20	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	4.27	4.27	4.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.19	0.20	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.09	4.47	4.73
WACC / Discount Rate	8.52%	8.52%	8.52%
Growth Rate	5.47%	6.47%	7.47%
Fair Value	$141.15	$231.74	$482.00
Upside / Downside	43.56%	135.70%	390.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,690.90	2,865.00	3,050.36	3,247.71	3,457.83	3,681.55	3,791.99
Payout Ratio	83.66%	84.92%	86.19%	87.46%	88.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,251.10	2,433.09	2,629.21	2,840.53	3,068.18	3,313.39	3,507.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.52%	8.52%	8.52%
Growth Rate	5.47%	6.47%	7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,220.94	2,242.00	2,263.06
Year 2 PV (M)	2,190.70	2,232.44	2,274.57
Year 3 PV (M)	2,160.40	2,222.43	2,285.65
Year 4 PV (M)	2,130.07	2,212.01	2,296.29
Year 5 PV (M)	2,099.74	2,201.19	2,306.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)	40,243.62	42,187.97	44,206.76
Equity Value (M)	51,045.47	53,298.04	55,632.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	526.77	526.77	526.77
Fair Value	$96.90	$101.18	$105.61
Upside / Downside	-1.44%	2.91%	7.41%

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PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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