DDM Analysis: PAYC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$138.10 - $274.15	$191.37
Multi-Stage	$103.49 - $112.98	$108.15
Blended Fair Value	$149.76
Current Price	$208.14
Upside	-28.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	1.51	1.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	30.79%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.69%	0.58%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	453.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	85.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)	367.99

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	90.64	56.65	33.99
Cash Retained (M)	367.99	367.99	367.99
(-) Cash Required (M)	-90.64	-56.65	-33.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	277.35	311.34	334.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	56.30	56.30	56.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.93	5.53	5.93
LTM Dividend per Share	1.51	1.51	1.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.93	5.53	5.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.44	7.04	7.45
WACC / Discount Rate	10.42%	10.42%	10.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$138.10	$191.37	$274.15
Upside / Downside	-33.65%	-8.06%	31.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	453.20	482.66	514.03	547.44	583.03	620.92	639.55
Payout Ratio	18.80%	33.04%	47.28%	61.52%	75.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	85.21	159.48	243.04	336.79	441.70	558.83	591.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.42%	10.42%	10.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	143.07	144.43	145.79
Year 2 PV (M)	195.61	199.34	203.10
Year 3 PV (M)	243.18	250.16	257.28
Year 4 PV (M)	286.12	297.13	308.45
Year 5 PV (M)	324.76	340.44	356.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,633.47	4,857.27	5,089.64
Equity Value (M)	5,826.22	6,088.77	6,360.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	56.30	56.30	56.30
Fair Value	$103.49	$108.15	$112.98
Upside / Downside	-50.28%	-48.04%	-45.72%

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Financial Statements

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Industry

Sector

Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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