DDM Analysis: OXY

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$23.63 - $38.58	$30.31
Multi-Stage	$32.50 - $35.52	$33.98
Blended Fair Value	$32.15
Current Price	$47.25
Upside	-31.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-11.24%	-4.15%	1.47	1.38	1.20	0.85	1.87	2.66	2.41	2.38	2.34	2.30
YoY Growth	-	-	5.93%	15.29%	41.12%	-54.53%	-29.69%	10.53%	1.19%	1.60%	1.99%	2.44%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.97%	2.09%	1.92%	1.50%	7.03%	22.98%	3.58%	3.66%	3.70%	3.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,067.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,563.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	504.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	413.40	258.38	155.03
Cash Retained (M)	504.00	504.00	504.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-413.40	-258.38	-155.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	90.60	245.63	348.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	986.13	986.13	986.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.25	0.35
LTM Dividend per Share	1.58	1.58	1.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.25	0.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.68	1.83	1.94
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%	8.60%	8.60%
Growth Rate	1.40%	2.40%	3.40%
Fair Value	$23.63	$30.31	$38.58
Upside / Downside	-49.99%	-35.85%	-18.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,067.00	2,116.68	2,167.56	2,219.65	2,273.00	2,327.63	2,397.46
Payout Ratio	75.62%	78.49%	81.37%	84.25%	87.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,563.00	1,661.46	1,763.74	1,869.99	1,980.32	2,094.87	2,217.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%	8.60%	8.60%
Growth Rate	1.40%	2.40%	3.40%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,514.94	1,529.88	1,544.82
Year 2 PV (M)	1,466.39	1,495.46	1,524.81
Year 3 PV (M)	1,417.62	1,459.98	1,503.17
Year 4 PV (M)	1,368.88	1,423.68	1,480.11
Year 5 PV (M)	1,320.37	1,386.77	1,455.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)	24,959.19	26,214.39	27,519.59
Equity Value (M)	32,047.40	33,510.16	35,028.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	986.13	986.13	986.13
Fair Value	$32.50	$33.98	$35.52
Upside / Downside	-31.22%	-28.08%	-24.82%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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