DDM Analysis: OVLY

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$84.29 - $405.50	$182.41
Multi-Stage	$45.16 - $49.40	$47.24
Blended Fair Value	$114.83
Current Price	$28.17
Upside	307.62%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.10%	11.01%	0.45	0.32	0.30	0.29	0.28	0.27	0.26	0.24	0.23	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	41.61%	6.95%	3.69%	3.78%	3.84%	4.58%	4.70%	4.23%	14.45%	28.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.81%	1.33%	1.26%	1.56%	1.62%	1.70%	1.33%	1.09%	1.77%	2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	16.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.38	2.11	1.27
Cash Retained (M)	11.87	11.87	11.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.38	-2.11	-1.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.49	9.76	10.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8.29	8.29	8.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.03	1.18	1.28
LTM Dividend per Share	0.61	0.61	0.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.03	1.18	1.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.63	1.78	1.89
WACC / Discount Rate	7.54%	7.54%	7.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$84.29	$182.41	$405.50
Upside / Downside	199.22%	547.53%	1,339.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	16.89	17.99	19.16	20.41	21.73	23.14	23.84
Payout Ratio	29.73%	41.78%	53.84%	65.89%	77.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.02	7.52	10.32	13.45	16.94	20.83	22.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.54%	7.54%	7.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	6.92	6.99	7.06
Year 2 PV (M)	8.75	8.92	9.09
Year 3 PV (M)	10.51	10.81	11.12
Year 4 PV (M)	12.20	12.66	13.15
Year 5 PV (M)	13.81	14.48	15.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	322.00	337.55	353.70
Equity Value (M)	374.19	391.42	409.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	8.29	8.29	8.29
Fair Value	$45.16	$47.24	$49.40
Upside / Downside	60.33%	67.71%	75.36%

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Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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