DDM Analysis: OSK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$149.07 - $270.36	$199.56
Multi-Stage	$140.29 - $153.45	$146.75
Blended Fair Value	$173.15
Current Price	$128.82
Upside	34.42%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.71%	9.00%	1.85	1.65	1.50	1.39	1.26	1.16	1.10	0.97	0.86	0.82
YoY Growth	-	-	11.94%	10.17%	7.63%	10.51%	8.34%	6.04%	13.38%	12.34%	5.27%	4.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.96%	1.34%	1.80%	1.38%	1.06%	1.23%	1.79%	1.06%	1.33%	2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	666.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	128.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	538.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	133.26	83.29	49.97
Cash Retained (M)	538.10	538.10	538.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-133.26	-83.29	-49.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)	404.84	454.81	488.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	65.01	65.01	65.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share	6.23	7.00	7.51
LTM Dividend per Share	1.97	1.97	1.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share	6.23	7.00	7.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.20	8.97	9.48
WACC / Discount Rate	9.56%	9.56%	9.56%
Growth Rate	3.85%	4.85%	5.85%
Fair Value	$149.07	$199.56	$270.36
Upside / Downside	15.72%	54.91%	109.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	666.30	698.58	732.43	767.92	805.13	844.13	869.46
Payout Ratio	19.24%	33.39%	47.54%	61.70%	75.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	128.20	233.27	348.23	473.78	610.67	759.72	804.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.56%	9.56%	9.56%
Growth Rate	3.85%	4.85%	5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)	210.89	212.93	214.96
Year 2 PV (M)	284.62	290.13	295.69
Year 3 PV (M)	350.08	360.29	370.70
Year 4 PV (M)	407.95	423.89	440.30
Year 5 PV (M)	458.83	481.35	504.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,408.11	7,771.73	8,149.50
Equity Value (M)	9,120.48	9,540.32	9,975.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	65.01	65.01	65.01
Fair Value	$140.29	$146.75	$153.45
Upside / Downside	8.90%	13.92%	19.12%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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