DDM Analysis: ORRF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$131.31 - $751.41	$246.46
Multi-Stage	$76.45 - $83.61	$79.96
Blended Fair Value	$163.21
Current Price	$33.98
Upside	380.32%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.46%	0.00%	0.68	0.44	0.43	0.43	0.39	0.32	0.23	0.18	0.15	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	55.30%	2.67%	-0.19%	8.80%	23.74%	40.57%	25.43%	20.36%	59.06%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.27%	1.68%	2.15%	1.87%	1.77%	2.31%	1.21%	0.75%	0.67%	0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	73.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)	54.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.61	9.13	5.48
Cash Retained (M)	54.02	54.02	54.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.61	-9.13	-5.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	39.41	44.89	48.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19.33	19.33	19.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.04	2.32	2.51
LTM Dividend per Share	0.98	0.98	0.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.04	2.32	2.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.02	3.31	3.49
WACC / Discount Rate	7.93%	7.93%	7.93%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$131.31	$246.46	$751.41
Upside / Downside	286.42%	625.31%	2,111.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	73.05	77.80	82.85	88.24	93.97	100.08	103.08
Payout Ratio	26.05%	38.84%	51.63%	64.42%	77.21%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.03	30.21	42.78	56.84	72.56	90.07	95.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.93%	7.93%	7.93%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	27.73	27.99	28.26
Year 2 PV (M)	36.04	36.72	37.41
Year 3 PV (M)	43.95	45.21	46.50
Year 4 PV (M)	51.49	53.47	55.51
Year 5 PV (M)	58.67	61.51	64.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,260.21	1,321.08	1,384.28
Equity Value (M)	1,478.10	1,545.99	1,616.41
Shares Outstanding (M)	19.33	19.33	19.33
Fair Value	$76.45	$79.96	$83.61
Upside / Downside	124.99%	135.33%	146.05%

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Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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