DDM Analysis: ORG.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$52.67 - $257.02	$93.69
Multi-Stage	$43.39 - $47.48	$45.39
Blended Fair Value	$69.54
Current Price	$10.79
Upside	544.50%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	15.84%	6.12%	0.57	0.47	0.33	0.18	0.20	0.28	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.24
YoY Growth	-	-	21.00%	44.19%	81.47%	-8.21%	-28.21%	187.88%	8,150.00%	0.00%	-99.52%	-23.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.32%	4.34%	3.91%	3.16%	4.38%	4.71%	1.29%	0.01%	0.02%	4.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,878.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,810.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,068.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	575.60	359.75	215.85
Cash Retained (M)	1,068.00	1,068.00	1,068.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-575.60	-359.75	-215.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	492.40	708.25	852.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,726.40	1,726.40	1,726.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.41	0.49
LTM Dividend per Share	1.05	1.05	1.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.41	0.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.33	1.46	1.54
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	4.12%	5.12%	6.12%
Fair Value	$52.67	$93.69	$257.02
Upside / Downside	388.10%	768.29%	2,282.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,878.00	3,025.43	3,180.42	3,343.35	3,514.62	3,694.66	3,805.50
Payout Ratio	62.89%	68.31%	73.73%	79.16%	84.58%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,810.00	2,066.76	2,345.07	2,646.47	2,972.60	3,325.20	3,520.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	4.12%	5.12%	6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,917.48	1,935.90	1,954.31
Year 2 PV (M)	2,018.55	2,057.51	2,096.84
Year 3 PV (M)	2,113.46	2,174.94	2,237.60
Year 4 PV (M)	2,202.45	2,288.29	2,376.61
Year 5 PV (M)	2,285.76	2,397.65	2,513.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)	64,363.50	67,514.19	70,787.07
Equity Value (M)	74,901.21	78,368.48	81,966.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,726.40	1,726.40	1,726.40
Fair Value	$43.39	$45.39	$47.48
Upside / Downside	302.09%	320.71%	340.02%

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Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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