DDM Analysis: ORCL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$113.37 - $269.19	$167.33
Multi-Stage	$81.33 - $88.77	$84.98
Blended Fair Value	$126.15
Current Price	$200.94
Upside	-37.22%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	9.09%	7.72%	1.64	1.52	1.27	1.20	1.06	1.06	1.01	1.09	0.91	0.88
YoY Growth	-	-	8.02%	19.71%	6.10%	12.86%	-0.23%	4.71%	-6.62%	19.35%	3.54%	12.68%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.73%	1.07%	1.05%	1.61%	1.19%	1.85%	1.95%	2.23%	1.81%	2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	15,425.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,370.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10,055.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,085.00	1,928.13	1,156.88
Cash Retained (M)	10,055.00	10,055.00	10,055.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,085.00	-1,928.13	-1,156.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6,970.00	8,126.88	8,898.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,892.50	2,892.50	2,892.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.41	2.81	3.08
LTM Dividend per Share	1.86	1.86	1.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.41	2.81	3.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.27	4.67	4.93
WACC / Discount Rate	9.47%	9.47%	9.47%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$113.37	$167.33	$269.19
Upside / Downside	-43.58%	-16.73%	33.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	15,425.00	16,427.63	17,495.42	18,632.62	19,843.74	21,133.59	21,767.59
Payout Ratio	34.81%	45.85%	56.89%	67.93%	78.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,370.00	7,532.21	9,952.82	12,656.29	15,669.16	19,020.23	20,135.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.47%	9.47%	9.47%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	6,816.02	6,880.62	6,945.23
Year 2 PV (M)	8,150.09	8,305.33	8,462.03
Year 3 PV (M)	9,378.44	9,647.67	9,921.99
Year 4 PV (M)	10,506.98	10,911.05	11,326.67
Year 5 PV (M)	11,541.34	12,098.79	12,677.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	188,840.22	197,961.28	207,431.42
Equity Value (M)	235,233.10	245,804.74	256,764.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,892.50	2,892.50	2,892.50
Fair Value	$81.33	$84.98	$88.77
Upside / Downside	-59.53%	-57.71%	-55.82%

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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