DDM Analysis: NWN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$84.92 - $488.17	$158.94
Multi-Stage	$64.11 - $70.09	$67.05
Blended Fair Value	$112.99
Current Price	$44.93
Upside	151.49%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.43%	3.82%	1.80	1.66	1.55	1.38	1.37	1.32	1.27	1.33	1.27	1.21
YoY Growth	-	-	8.19%	7.28%	12.25%	0.90%	3.90%	3.95%	-4.90%	4.75%	4.60%	-1.70%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.21%	4.47%	3.25%	2.67%	2.53%	2.13%	1.94%	2.32%	2.15%	2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	100.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	76.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	23.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	20.11	12.57	7.54
Cash Retained (M)	23.87	23.87	23.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-20.11	-12.57	-7.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.77	11.31	16.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	40.55	40.55	40.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.28	0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	1.89	1.89	1.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.28	0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.98	2.17	2.29
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	4.43%	5.43%	6.43%
Fair Value	$84.92	$158.94	$488.17
Upside / Downside	89.02%	253.76%	986.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	100.53	105.99	111.75	117.82	124.22	130.97	134.90
Payout Ratio	76.25%	79.00%	81.75%	84.50%	87.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	76.66	83.74	91.36	99.56	108.39	117.88	124.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	4.43%	5.43%	6.43%
Year 1 PV (M)	77.61	78.35	79.09
Year 2 PV (M)	78.48	79.99	81.51
Year 3 PV (M)	79.26	81.56	83.91
Year 4 PV (M)	79.97	83.08	86.28
Year 5 PV (M)	80.61	84.55	88.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,203.51	2,311.05	2,422.75
Equity Value (M)	2,599.45	2,718.58	2,842.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	40.55	40.55	40.55
Fair Value	$64.11	$67.05	$70.09
Upside / Downside	42.68%	49.22%	56.01%

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Sector

Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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