DDM Analysis: NRCA.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$420.21 - $597.15	$507.35
Multi-Stage	$644.72 - $707.06	$675.29
Blended Fair Value	$591.32
Current Price	$905.00
Upside	-34.66%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-0.88%	0.09%	28.86	41.79	14.93	14.93	24.88	30.16	40.21	30.16	16.40	30.87
YoY Growth	-	-	-30.95%	180.00%	0.00%	-40.00%	-17.51%	-25.00%	33.33%	83.86%	-46.87%	7.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.43%	12.15%	4.85%	5.45%	7.54%	10.77%	9.95%	7.01%	3.96%	4.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	153,231.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	53,523.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)	99,708.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30,646.29	19,153.93	11,492.36
Cash Retained (M)	99,708.41	99,708.41	99,708.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30,646.29	-19,153.93	-11,492.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)	69,062.12	80,554.48	88,216.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,429.01	2,429.01	2,429.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share	28.43	33.16	36.32
LTM Dividend per Share	22.03	22.03	22.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	28.43	33.16	36.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	50.47	55.20	58.35
WACC / Discount Rate	9.88%	9.88%	9.88%
Growth Rate	-1.91%	-0.91%	0.09%
Fair Value	$420.21	$507.35	$597.15
Upside / Downside	-53.57%	-43.94%	-34.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	153,231.45	151,843.12	150,467.37	149,104.09	147,753.15	146,414.46	150,806.89
Payout Ratio	34.93%	45.94%	56.96%	67.97%	78.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	53,523.04	69,762.25	85,702.79	101,348.76	116,704.17	131,773.01	139,496.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.88%	9.88%	9.88%
Growth Rate	-1.91%	-0.91%	0.09%
Year 1 PV (M)	62,851.60	63,492.33	64,133.06
Year 2 PV (M)	69,564.35	70,989.90	72,429.91
Year 3 PV (M)	74,114.99	76,404.83	78,741.35
Year 4 PV (M)	76,890.00	80,073.63	83,355.12
Year 5 PV (M)	78,217.84	82,286.85	86,523.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,204,382.44	1,267,036.13	1,332,270.57
Equity Value (M)	1,566,021.22	1,640,283.66	1,717,453.46
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,429.01	2,429.01	2,429.01
Fair Value	$644.72	$675.29	$707.06
Upside / Downside	-28.76%	-25.38%	-21.87%

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Financial Statements

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PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk (NRCA.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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