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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.79 - $74.85$49.64
Multi-Stage$27.85 - $30.28$29.04
Blended Fair Value$39.34
Current Price$24.80
Upside58.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.631.250.520.050.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--30.68%140.19%945.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.39%3.14%1.71%0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)171.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.2422.6513.59
Cash Retained (M)9.719.719.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.24-22.65-13.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)-26.53-12.94-3.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.4499.4499.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.27-0.13-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.721.721.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.27-0.13-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.591.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.79$49.64$74.85
Upside / Downside40.27%100.15%201.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.19192.97205.51218.87233.10248.25255.70
Payout Ratio94.64%93.71%92.78%91.86%90.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)171.48180.84190.68201.05211.95223.42236.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)162.97164.51166.06
Year 2 PV (M)154.87157.82160.79
Year 3 PV (M)147.15151.38155.68
Year 4 PV (M)139.81145.18150.71
Year 5 PV (M)132.81139.23145.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,031.572,129.702,231.58
Equity Value (M)2,769.182,887.823,010.72
Shares Outstanding (M)99.4499.4499.44
Fair Value$27.85$29.04$30.28
Upside / Downside12.28%17.09%22.08%

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