Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk (NISP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,397.16 - $10,413.05$6,484.57
Multi-Stage$4,845.13 - $5,307.28$5,071.89
Blended Fair Value$5,778.23
Current Price$1,355.00
Upside326.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%72.0058.0022.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--24.14%163.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.35%4.31%2.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,873,131.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,432,201.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,440,930.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)974,626.20609,141.38365,484.83
Cash Retained (M)2,440,930.002,440,930.002,440,930.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-974,626.20-609,141.38-365,484.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,466,303.801,831,788.632,075,445.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,945.3022,945.3022,945.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.9079.8390.45
LTM Dividend per Share106.00106.00106.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.9079.8390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend169.90185.83196.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate3.05%4.05%5.05%
Fair Value$4,397.16$6,484.57$10,413.05
Upside / Downside224.51%378.57%668.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,873,131.005,070,639.365,276,152.755,489,995.615,712,505.545,944,033.826,122,354.83
Payout Ratio49.91%57.93%65.95%73.96%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,432,201.002,937,337.713,479,425.544,060,629.964,683,231.295,349,630.445,663,178.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate3.05%4.05%5.05%
Year 1 PV (M)2,717,905.732,744,279.592,770,653.45
Year 2 PV (M)2,978,986.683,037,081.843,095,738.02
Year 3 PV (M)3,216,880.573,311,439.593,407,833.71
Year 4 PV (M)3,432,951.253,568,153.293,707,310.10
Year 5 PV (M)3,628,493.243,807,993.093,994,527.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,197,786.8899,907,176.47104,801,126.01
Equity Value (M)111,173,004.35116,376,123.87121,777,188.79
Shares Outstanding (M)22,945.3022,945.3022,945.30
Fair Value$4,845.13$5,071.89$5,307.28
Upside / Downside257.57%274.31%291.68%

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