DDM Analysis: NHC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$127.69 - $287.40	$185.10
Multi-Stage	$128.96 - $141.20	$134.96
Blended Fair Value	$160.03
Current Price	$107.01
Upside	49.55%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.44%	7.05%	2.37	2.28	2.21	2.05	2.04	2.00	1.91	1.81	1.65	1.35
YoY Growth	-	-	3.95%	2.76%	8.04%	0.34%	2.28%	4.63%	5.63%	9.47%	22.31%	12.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.55%	2.46%	3.81%	2.92%	2.62%	2.78%	2.53%	3.03%	2.32%	2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	101.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	38.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)	63.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	20.25	12.66	7.59
Cash Retained (M)	63.06	63.06	63.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-20.25	-12.66	-7.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	42.81	50.40	55.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15.63	15.63	15.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.74	3.23	3.55
LTM Dividend per Share	2.44	2.44	2.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.74	3.23	3.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.18	5.67	5.99
WACC / Discount Rate	7.63%	7.63%	7.63%
Growth Rate	3.43%	4.43%	5.43%
Fair Value	$127.69	$185.10	$287.40
Upside / Downside	19.33%	72.97%	168.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	101.25	105.73	110.42	115.31	120.42	125.75	129.52
Payout Ratio	37.72%	48.18%	58.63%	69.09%	79.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	38.19	50.94	64.74	79.67	95.79	113.18	119.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.63%	7.63%	7.63%
Growth Rate	3.43%	4.43%	5.43%
Year 1 PV (M)	46.88	47.33	47.78
Year 2 PV (M)	54.82	55.89	56.96
Year 3 PV (M)	62.08	63.90	65.75
Year 4 PV (M)	68.69	71.38	74.15
Year 5 PV (M)	74.68	78.36	82.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,707.95	1,792.12	1,879.59
Equity Value (M)	2,015.09	2,108.98	2,206.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	15.63	15.63	15.63
Fair Value	$128.96	$134.96	$141.20
Upside / Downside	20.51%	26.12%	31.95%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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