Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Analysis Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.90 - $166.69$119.73
Multi-Stage$110.08 - $120.67$115.28
Blended Fair Value$117.50
Current Price$92.37
Upside27.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.21%3.72%2.072.011.931.841.791.681.621.571.521.48
YoY Growth--2.52%4.37%4.73%3.10%6.37%4.00%2.90%3.02%3.14%3.14%
Dividend Yield--2.24%3.32%3.85%2.91%2.80%4.09%3.47%3.07%2.78%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)518.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)330.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.7064.8138.89
Cash Retained (M)330.07330.07330.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.70-64.81-38.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.37265.25291.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.2491.2491.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.482.913.19
LTM Dividend per Share2.072.072.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.482.913.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.554.975.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Fair Value$87.90$119.73$166.69
Upside / Downside-4.84%29.62%80.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)518.50535.15552.33570.07588.37607.26625.48
Payout Ratio36.34%47.07%57.81%68.54%79.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.44251.92319.28390.71466.39546.54578.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Year 1 PV (M)232.08234.35236.62
Year 2 PV (M)270.97276.30281.68
Year 3 PV (M)305.47314.53323.76
Year 4 PV (M)335.93349.27363.00
Year 5 PV (M)362.65380.74399.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,536.208,962.039,404.68
Equity Value (M)10,043.3010,517.2111,009.29
Shares Outstanding (M)91.2491.2491.24
Fair Value$110.08$115.28$120.67
Upside / Downside19.17%24.80%30.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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