DDM Analysis: NC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$32.69 - $48.92	$40.39
Multi-Stage	$51.77 - $56.86	$54.26
Blended Fair Value	$47.33
Current Price	$44.31
Upside	6.81%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.24%	-1.56%	0.89	0.87	0.81	0.75	0.72	0.69	0.62	0.90	0.98	0.98
YoY Growth	-	-	2.67%	7.32%	7.03%	4.50%	4.73%	12.10%	-31.49%	-7.99%	-0.47%	-5.92%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.64%	2.95%	2.24%	1.92%	2.89%	2.46%	1.62%	2.73%	6.12%	7.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	28.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.80	3.62	2.17
Cash Retained (M)	21.87	21.87	21.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.80	-3.62	-2.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)	16.07	18.24	19.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7.44	7.44	7.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.16	2.45	2.65
LTM Dividend per Share	0.96	0.96	0.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.16	2.45	2.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.12	3.41	3.60
WACC / Discount Rate	8.53%	8.53%	8.53%
Growth Rate	-0.92%	0.08%	1.08%
Fair Value	$32.69	$40.39	$48.92
Upside / Downside	-26.23%	-8.84%	10.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	28.98	29.00	29.03	29.05	29.08	29.10	29.97
Payout Ratio	24.54%	37.63%	50.73%	63.82%	76.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7.11	10.91	14.72	18.54	22.36	26.19	27.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.53%	8.53%	8.53%
Growth Rate	-0.92%	0.08%	1.08%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.96	10.06	10.16
Year 2 PV (M)	12.25	12.50	12.75
Year 3 PV (M)	14.07	14.50	14.94
Year 4 PV (M)	15.49	16.12	16.77
Year 5 PV (M)	16.54	17.40	18.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	316.92	333.24	350.22
Equity Value (M)	385.24	403.82	423.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	7.44	7.44	7.44
Fair Value	$51.77	$54.26	$56.86
Upside / Downside	16.82%	22.46%	28.32%

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Sector

NACCO Industries, Inc. (NC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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