DDM Analysis: NBTB

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$67.04 - $160.23	$99.16
Multi-Stage	$58.64 - $64.10	$61.32
Blended Fair Value	$80.24
Current Price	$41.76
Upside	92.15%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.24%	5.37%	1.32	1.18	1.05	1.01	1.00	0.97	0.92	0.85	0.82	0.81
YoY Growth	-	-	11.41%	12.30%	4.25%	1.12%	2.60%	6.33%	7.89%	3.15%	1.92%	3.37%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.07%	3.29%	3.13%	2.80%	2.51%	3.01%	2.51%	2.39%	2.22%	3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	149.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	69.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	80.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	29.95	18.72	11.23
Cash Retained (M)	80.41	80.41	80.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-29.95	-18.72	-11.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	50.46	61.69	69.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	47.21	47.21	47.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.07	1.31	1.47
LTM Dividend per Share	1.47	1.47	1.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.07	1.31	1.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.78	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	8.18%	8.18%	8.18%
Growth Rate	4.24%	5.24%	6.24%
Fair Value	$67.04	$99.16	$160.23
Upside / Downside	60.53%	137.46%	283.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	149.73	157.57	165.82	174.51	183.65	193.26	199.06
Payout Ratio	46.30%	55.04%	63.78%	72.52%	81.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	69.32	86.72	105.76	126.55	149.23	173.94	184.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.18%	8.18%	8.18%
Growth Rate	4.24%	5.24%	6.24%
Year 1 PV (M)	79.40	80.16	80.93
Year 2 PV (M)	88.66	90.37	92.09
Year 3 PV (M)	97.13	99.95	102.83
Year 4 PV (M)	104.87	108.95	113.15
Year 5 PV (M)	111.91	117.39	123.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,286.15	2,397.94	2,514.05
Equity Value (M)	2,768.13	2,894.76	3,026.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	47.21	47.21	47.21
Fair Value	$58.64	$61.32	$64.10
Upside / Downside	40.41%	46.84%	53.50%

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NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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