Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.99 - $335.34$216.91
Multi-Stage$108.06 - $118.01$112.94
Blended Fair Value$164.93
Current Price$72.43
Upside127.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.510.550.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--174.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.13%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)118.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)422.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.3367.7040.62
Cash Retained (M)422.90422.90422.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.33-67.70-40.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)314.57355.20382.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.364.935.30
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.364.935.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.016.576.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$149.99$216.91$335.34
Upside / Downside107.08%199.47%362.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.63576.84614.33654.26696.79742.08764.34
Payout Ratio21.92%35.54%49.15%62.77%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)118.73204.99301.96410.67532.24667.87707.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)185.06186.82188.57
Year 2 PV (M)246.10250.79255.52
Year 3 PV (M)302.17310.84319.68
Year 4 PV (M)353.55367.14381.13
Year 5 PV (M)400.52419.86439.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,301.916,606.306,922.33
Equity Value (M)7,789.318,141.758,507.18
Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
Fair Value$108.06$112.94$118.01
Upside / Downside49.19%55.94%62.93%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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