DDM Analysis: MSM

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.14 - $27.93	$24.05
Multi-Stage	$44.07 - $48.33	$46.16
Blended Fair Value	$35.10
Current Price	$90.23
Upside	-61.09%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-15.65%	-3.97%	3.39	3.35	3.16	2.99	2.99	7.95	2.61	2.24	1.83	1.89
YoY Growth	-	-	1.27%	5.98%	5.58%	0.05%	-62.33%	204.83%	16.17%	22.71%	-3.37%	-62.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.76%	3.90%	3.20%	3.50%	3.68%	9.14%	3.55%	2.53%	2.02%	2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	199.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	189.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9.68

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	39.87	24.92	14.95
Cash Retained (M)	9.68	9.68	9.68
(-) Cash Required (M)	-39.87	-24.92	-14.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-30.19	-15.24	-5.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	55.89	55.89	55.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.54	-0.27	-0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	3.39	3.39	3.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.54	-0.27	-0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.85	3.12	3.30
WACC / Discount Rate	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%
Growth Rate	-5.10%	-4.10%	-3.10%
Fair Value	$20.14	$24.05	$27.93
Upside / Downside	-77.68%	-73.35%	-69.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	199.33	191.15	183.31	175.79	168.57	161.66	166.51
Payout Ratio	95.14%	94.12%	93.09%	92.06%	91.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	189.65	179.90	170.64	161.83	153.45	145.49	154.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%
Growth Rate	-5.10%	-4.10%	-3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	164.32	166.05	167.79
Year 2 PV (M)	142.36	145.38	148.42
Year 3 PV (M)	123.32	127.26	131.28
Year 4 PV (M)	106.81	111.38	116.10
Year 5 PV (M)	92.50	97.48	102.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,833.77	1,932.45	2,035.33
Equity Value (M)	2,463.08	2,580.00	2,701.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	55.89	55.89	55.89
Fair Value	$44.07	$46.16	$48.33
Upside / Downside	-51.16%	-48.84%	-46.43%

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MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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