DDM Analysis: MRO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.61 - $25.74	$21.53
Multi-Stage	$28.55 - $31.38	$29.94
Blended Fair Value	$25.74
Current Price	$26.63
Upside	-3.36%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	8.23%	-6.81%	0.44	0.38	0.25	0.11	0.28	0.29	0.30	0.28	0.80	0.95
YoY Growth	-	-	14.09%	56.03%	120.31%	-60.49%	-4.14%	-0.59%	4.94%	-64.78%	-15.29%	6.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.53%	1.60%	0.98%	1.05%	8.59%	1.70%	1.84%	1.79%	7.21%	3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,330.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	253.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,077.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	266.00	166.25	99.75
Cash Retained (M)	1,077.00	1,077.00	1,077.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-266.00	-166.25	-99.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	811.00	910.75	977.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	572.96	572.96	572.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.42	1.59	1.71
LTM Dividend per Share	0.44	0.44	0.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.42	1.59	1.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.86	2.03	2.15
WACC / Discount Rate	8.71%	8.71%	8.71%
Growth Rate	-1.66%	-0.66%	0.34%
Fair Value	$17.61	$21.53	$25.74
Upside / Downside	-33.87%	-19.14%	-3.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,330.00	1,321.26	1,312.58	1,303.95	1,295.38	1,286.87	1,325.48
Payout Ratio	19.02%	33.22%	47.41%	61.61%	75.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	253.00	438.90	622.34	803.35	981.96	1,158.18	1,226.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.71%	8.71%	8.71%
Growth Rate	-1.66%	-0.66%	0.34%
Year 1 PV (M)	399.66	403.72	407.78
Year 2 PV (M)	516.03	526.58	537.23
Year 3 PV (M)	606.56	625.26	644.33
Year 4 PV (M)	675.13	703.01	731.75
Year 5 PV (M)	725.10	762.72	801.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,435.40	14,132.53	14,858.29
Equity Value (M)	16,357.88	17,153.82	17,981.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	572.96	572.96	572.96
Fair Value	$28.55	$29.94	$31.38
Upside / Downside	7.21%	12.43%	17.85%

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Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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