DDM Analysis: MORN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$202.19 - $525.47	$307.22
Multi-Stage	$138.53 - $151.38	$144.84
Blended Fair Value	$226.03
Current Price	$232.01
Upside	-2.58%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.71%	8.55%	1.62	1.49	1.43	1.26	1.20	1.11	0.99	0.92	0.88	0.79
YoY Growth	-	-	8.45%	3.90%	13.47%	5.45%	7.53%	12.21%	8.40%	3.69%	12.46%	10.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.54%	0.49%	0.71%	0.46%	0.53%	0.96%	0.77%	0.96%	1.12%	0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	376.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	75.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	300.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	75.20	47.00	28.20
Cash Retained (M)	300.70	300.70	300.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-75.20	-47.00	-28.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	225.50	253.70	272.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	42.90	42.90	42.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.26	5.91	6.35
LTM Dividend per Share	1.76	1.76	1.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.26	5.91	6.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.01	7.67	8.11
WACC / Discount Rate	9.16%	9.16%	9.16%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$202.19	$307.22	$525.47
Upside / Downside	-12.85%	32.41%	126.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	376.00	400.44	426.47	454.19	483.71	515.15	530.61
Payout Ratio	20.03%	34.02%	48.02%	62.01%	76.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	75.30	136.23	204.77	281.65	367.65	463.64	490.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.16%	9.16%	9.16%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	123.63	124.80	125.98
Year 2 PV (M)	168.64	171.85	175.10
Year 3 PV (M)	210.49	216.54	222.69
Year 4 PV (M)	249.35	258.94	268.80
Year 5 PV (M)	285.37	299.15	313.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,905.26	5,142.18	5,388.18
Equity Value (M)	5,942.74	6,213.47	6,494.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	42.90	42.90	42.90
Fair Value	$138.53	$144.84	$151.38
Upside / Downside	-40.29%	-37.57%	-34.75%

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Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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