DDM Analysis: MHKI.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$66.39 - $94.10	$80.07
Multi-Stage	$101.09 - $110.92	$105.91
Blended Fair Value	$92.99
Current Price	$180.00
Upside	-48.34%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.79	0.00	5.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.86%	0.00%	2.55%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	36,784.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10,932.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25,852.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7,357.00	4,598.12	2,758.87
Cash Retained (M)	25,852.82	25,852.82	25,852.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7,357.00	-4,598.12	-2,758.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18,495.83	21,254.70	23,093.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,641.10	3,641.10	3,641.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.08	5.84	6.34
LTM Dividend per Share	3.00	3.00	3.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.08	5.84	6.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.08	8.84	9.35
WACC / Discount Rate	9.93%	9.93%	9.93%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$66.39	$80.07	$94.10
Upside / Downside	-63.12%	-55.52%	-47.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	36,784.98	36,417.13	36,052.96	35,692.43	35,335.50	34,982.15	36,031.61
Payout Ratio	29.72%	41.78%	53.83%	65.89%	77.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10,932.15	15,213.35	19,407.83	23,516.89	27,541.84	31,483.93	33,329.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.93%	9.93%	9.93%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	13,699.28	13,839.07	13,978.86
Year 2 PV (M)	15,737.03	16,059.83	16,385.91
Year 3 PV (M)	17,171.12	17,702.15	18,244.02
Year 4 PV (M)	18,108.59	18,859.10	19,632.71
Year 5 PV (M)	18,640.33	19,610.97	20,621.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	284,727.19	299,553.60	314,991.31
Equity Value (M)	368,083.53	385,624.72	403,854.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,641.10	3,641.10	3,641.10
Fair Value	$101.09	$105.91	$110.92
Upside / Downside	-43.84%	-41.16%	-38.38%

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Financial Statements

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Multi Hanna Kreasindo Tbk. (MHKI.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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